China's Demographic Disaster

I am often asked if I think China is in the process of taking over the world. No I don’t. There are a number of reasons why not but the biggest is my favorite big word: demographics.

China’s birthrate is collapsing and soon it’s population will follow. First, you will have the rapid aging of the Chinese population and the decline of working age youth. Soon after, you will see China’s population decline in raw numbers. It will join nations whose population is already imploding: Japan, Germany, and Russia to name the biggest. Absent immigration the United States would be on the list.

How bad is it? China’s own National Health Commission found that in 2022 China’s fertility rate had fallen to 1.09 per woman. Remember it takes slightly more than two children per woman for a country to maintain its population. One for the woman, one for her partner, and a very small allowance for young girls who do not live to child-bearing age. 1.09 is a disaster. In a couple of generations you lose half your population. In the next two generations China’s population will shrink by 600 million people. Anti-population advocates think that’s a good thing but they are foolish. 100% of human wealth is produced by human beings. It doesn’t fall out of the sky. You lose half your population you lose at least half your productivity. In this case it’s more than half because you are losing productive young people while the unproductive elderly carry on.

The future for China is bleak. China also had a record low in marriage registrations last year. People in the West don’t seem to care. Our own fertility rates are rapidly falling. We are ignoring the most important numbers in the world.

More: In Unherd: Peter Franklin, China’s Shocking Demographic Decline; https://unherd.com/thepost/chinas-shocking-demographic-decline-just-got-worse/

Spain in decline: https://unherd.com/thepost/can-spain-defuse-its-depopulation-bomb/?mc_cid=9bf60ea198&mc_eid=5b400e1632

America at risk: https://www.wsj.com/articles/americas-choice-immigration-or-bust-aging-population-work-unemployment-border-738a56bb?mod=MorningEditorialReport&mod=djemMER_h